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After the game is before the game - Run Lola Run

Sometimes I may be lacking in direction, but by God I've got a lot of velocity. When I saw The Bourne Ultimatum recently, my date told me she was completely exhausted by the experience. I remembered watching the film thinking, "Yeah. This feels just about right." So it should come as no surprise that I'm a big fan of the 1999 film Run Lola Run. Combining time pressure, a perfectly suited techno soundtrack and, of course, all of that running by the film's eponymous heroine, it's perfectly suited to a man with my mental metabolism. It's adrenaline on a stick. So how is this related to the Petraeus presentation? Both the film and the American misadventure in Iraq face the same set of problems again and again. On each new occasion there is an opportunity to try a new solution. In the movie, things get better each time. And in Iraq, nothing could be further from the truth.

To clarify: The goal of the "surge" was to suppress violence, particularly in Baghdad, in order to give the Iraqi government the "breathing room" it needed to become politically viable. Passage and implementation of vital legislation such as ensuring the Sunni minority's participation in the government and determining the proper distribution of oil revenues between the Sunnis, the Shia, and the Kurds is crucial to creating a stable Iraqi state. A military plan to affect a political goal. The military results? Civilian deaths in Baghdad have dropped but in the rest of the country they have risen. Things are quieter in the areas of the city regularly patrolled by American forces. And the political results? Nothing doing. Out in Hardin County, if you've spent the day goofing off, they have a saying for it that I don't care to repeat in print. Let's just say that it's a safe bet the dog wouldn't want you to do that.

Never one to let the facts get in the way of political gamesmanship, President Bush made a surprise visit to Iraq on Labor Day. Instead of arriving in Baghdad, his plane landed at an American Air Force base in Anbar province. Did anyone else think this looked like a "Mission Accomplished" moment?

Let me take a moment to comment on some presidential pathology that keeps sticking out like a small thumb. I've never heard a chief executive refer to himself as the Commander-in-Chief out loud. Particularly in front of men and women who may die that very day because of his decisions. Is it just bad manners? Or is it some sort of compensatory behavior? Can you say bodybuilders?

Isn't it kind of hard to declare progress in a country that the President of the United States has to sneak into unannounced after dark?

Let's look at the parallels between the two photo ops. Both were staged with politics, rather than policy, in mind. Both events were based on Americans taking credit for things they hadn't done. The original event was based on what some mean-spirited, naive little men in Washington wanted to happen. The American leadership, both civilian and military, was oblivious to the reality that the insurgency was taking off.

The Anbar photo op once again ignores the complex realities of a country the size of California. In this case, the fact is that the Sunnis in Anbar turned on al-Qaeda for personal and tribal reasons. And they did this on their own. The Americans jumped on the bandwagon, arming tribesmen who were killing our soldiers and Marines not so long ago. What tribal leader would turn down free guns and money? If it takes paying some lip service to these idiot occupiers and their obedient press corps, it's still a good deal. By the way, if we're still there after they run off al-Qaeda, guess who'll they be turning all those taxpayer financed weapons on next? To paraphrase a well known beltway saying: In Iraq, never take friendship personally.

You can bet we will hear the rosiest scenario possible when Petraeus makes his report. Katie Couric, the personification of today's journalistic competency, is already taking the military's dog and pony show press tour. She is obediently telling her viewers just how gosh darn well things are going in Iraq. So well that the British Army has just evacuated the city of Basra in southern Iraq and is shipping out of Iraq just as soon as possible. Apparently this action was initiated the minute that Tony, "the poodle", Blair left #10 Downing Street.

The Bush administration may be down, but it isn't out. This is particularly true when situations can be dealt with pure political trickery. They'll show you the carrot (possible troop withdrawals and hints of political progress) but look out for the stick.

It's quite surprising, given the volume of easily available evidence, not to mention the red faces still remaining from the "Mission Accomplished" boondoggle, that our press corps has decided that there is an equal amount of evidence supporting both sides. Soon the pundits will say that a coin toss will be necessary to determine what the next right thing to do in Iraq is. Will they ever learn that sometimes balanced isn't fair? Let's take a test. Which of the following items qualifies as progress in Iraq?

• A drop in civilian deaths in Baghdad. There is no doubt the American presence may be a contributing factor. But if we decide to make the radical decision to look at it from an Iraqi perspective, other reasons unrelated to the "surge" surface. One of the main ones has to do with ethnic cleansing. The vast majority of the fighting in Baghdad has to do with Sunnis and Shiites trying to take over neighborhoods occupied by the other group. This reasoning goes that they've just about got everything locked up and are running out of people to kill. If you shoot your upstairs neighbor, the drummer, you can finally eat dinner in peace.
• You're forced to put out a statement that says your own agency studies, one by the Government Accountability Office as well as the National Intelligence Estimate, are just plain wrong. They have the nerve to conclude that there has been no political progress in Iraq worth mentioning. Holy inconvenient truth, Mr. President!
• In 2004, 96% of Iraqis in need of food assistance received rations from the government. Today that figure is down to 60%, exacerbated by the departure of professionals, such as doctors, from the country. You may need some antibiotics for that brain drain.
• In Sulaymaniyah, in Iraqi Kurdistan, running water is only available for two hours a day. As a result, sanitation services have significantly deteriorated. People in the poorest parts of the city have had to dig shallow wells to get water. As a result, over 5,000 cases of cholera were reported last year. Pepto-Bismol isn't going to fix that.
• Someone approaches some G.I.'s on R&R from Iraq in DFW airport to ask them what it was like over there. "Bad!" they replied. Then they are asked when they think they'll be coming home for good? Almost in unison they reply, "When a Democrat is elected." Didn't they get the script?
• The head of the British Army during the invasion states his belief that former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's approach was "intellectually bankrupt" and that Rumsfeld was "one of those most responsible for the current situation in Iraq." The problem is that no one ever asked him for his opinion.
• The Pentagon is unable to come up with a unified "surge" recommendation to President Bush during the September strategy session. Unable? Or maybe they're unwilling to take the fall for an unmitigated disaster. Situation FUBAR, activate CYA contingency plan.
• Insurgents are extorting heavy payments of protection money from American financed Iraqi contractors in Al-Anbar province. "Ali, make them an offer they cannot refuse, Insha'Allah."
• Explaining to an Iraqi how a drop in monthly civilian deaths from 2,100 a month during the height of pre "surge" violence to 1809 in August is progress. No, really, I want to hear this one.
• What evidence do we have that the Iraqis actually want a central government? The Sunnis want something like that to protect themselves from vengeful Shiite and Kurdish militias. Since Sunnis have long oppressed and, during Saddam's reign, slaughtered these two groups, who really expects Shiite and Kurdish leaders to want to share power? A thug repeatedly beats you senseless, kicks you out of your own home, rapes your sister, and kills your father because he's a Presbyterian. In a similar situation Saint Francis would forgive him and help him in any way he could. Would you?

Manni: What if I were in a coma, and the doc says, "One more day?"
Lola: I'd throw you into the ocean... Shock therapy.

If we could finally disabuse ourselves of the democracy in Iraq delusion, hopefully we can clearly see that the central government fantasy will be dropped shortly after the Petraeus deception has accomplished its mission. Bill Maher summed it up in a blog entry recently: "So don't let them fool you with all the talk of ‘progress.' They've simply, and for the 37th time, re-defined what ‘progress' means. And when we get to #65 - that more Iraqis have access to NFL Network than ever before -- I'll say, ‘Okay, okay. That is progress. ...Can we come home now?' "

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